Big 12 North Preview

I'm not going to bother going through each team's entire schedule, but I'll take a quick look at each North squad and run through its conference schedule to see how each team might fare this season.

In order of predicted finish...

1. Missouri: I know what you're thinking. You think this guy is an idiot for picking a team coached by Gary Pinkel. And, well, you're right. I am kind of an idiot. But at this point, I think this team has as good a shot as anyone to win the division. They should be loaded on offense, with Daniel, Temple (if he can stop fumbling), Coffman and Rucker returning. Throw in Will Franklin at WR, and this team will score some points.

Of course, other fans will howl that the Tigers have no defense. Indeed, they did lose a lot from a defense that wasn't all that stout to begin with. However, looking at the deficiencies of all the other North teams, I have more reasons to pick Mizzou than anyone else.

Predicted finish (7-1):
10/6, vs. Nebraska: Win for MU. They've won the last two against NU in Columbia, and I have no real reason to believe this year will be any different.
10/13, at Oklahoma: Loss for MU. I think OU is going to be further down than most do this year (they're preseason #7 in some poll), and they don't have a QB at this point, but I'm not sure MU is ready to win in Norman.
10/20, vs. Texas Tech: Win for MU. This game may end up 77-70, but I like the weapons MU has over TTU breaking in a new QB and replacing some of last year's players.
10/27, vs. Iowa State: Win for MU. ISU doesn't have the talent to compete right now, even with Gene Chizik.
11/3, at Colorado: Win for MU. I think CU will be vastly improved, but they have no homefield advantage and are still trying to get players in there for Hawkins' system.
11/10, vs. Texas A&M: Win for MU. This will be a huge game for MU. As I've said multiple times before, I'm not sold on Fran, and I can't pick the Aggies to win in a big road game (last year's win over UT in Austin notwithstanding).
11/17, at K-State: Win for MU. Kills me to say it, but I see our win steak in Manhattan ending. I do think the Cats have a good chance to take this game, given MU's past struggles here and the stength of the Lynch Mob going up against MU's offense, but I can't pick the Cats at this point. This is where we need a big Pinkel choke.
11/24, vs. KU (in KC): Win for MU. MU owns KU right now, and will have at least a neutral field at Arrowhead (if not homefield advantage).

2. Nebraska: Nebraska should be another strong offensive team this year, although not as strong as MU. The OL should provide good protection and run blocking. Now if they can just find someone to run behind it, after Brandon Jackson left, Kenny Wilson broke his leg, and Marlon Lucky landed in the ICU for some unexplained reason. It may be interesting to see who wins the alleged QB battle, although I'll be shocked if it's not Sam Keller. If he doesn't win it, Husker fans should be very worried about quality of QB play, not to mention team chemistry.

NU's defense should be decent, but not great. The LB position looks pretty strong with Ruud, Octavien and McKeon back. If NU can replace the four DL starters it lost, the unit could be pretty solid. If not, its undersized and outmanned backfield could get torched. Getting Zac Bowman back would help...

Predicted finish (6-2):
9/29, vs. Iowa State: Win for NU. ISU will be outmanned and doesn't have much chance in Lincoln.
10/6, at Missouri: Loss for NU. See my comments from Mizzou above. Hostile environment and a good team. If Pinkel stays out of his own way...
10/13, vs. Oklahoma State: Win for NU. This is a much needed game, but it will be very difficult. OSU ran NU out of Stillwater last year, and have a lot of key cogs back in what should be an explosive offense. NU better watch out in this one.
10/20, vs. Texas A&M: Win for NU. I may be at this one with some of my Aggie friends. Looks like another good game, but A&M couldn't get it done in College Station last year and, as I mentioned earlier, I can't pick Fran in a big road game.
10/27, at Texas: Loss for NU. Sure, you played 'em tough in Lincoln last year, but if you can't even beat the 'Horns in the snow, how you gonna beat 'em in Austin?
11/3, at Kansas: Win for NU. I'm tempted to pick this as my upset special of the year, especially given KU's bitch-slapping of NU last time they came to Lawrence. But I can't do it, because this KU team isn't as good as the 2005 version, and the 2007 Huskers are better than the 2005 team.
11/10, vs. K-State: Win for NU. Another game it kills me to predict, but this group of 'Cats isn't quite ready to win in Lincoln. I think this should be a tough game, especially if the Lynch Mob makes life hard on NU's offense, but I'm not sure if K-State can put up the points to win yet.
11/23, at Colorado: Win for NU. Another game I'm tempted to pick the Huskers to lose, but CU's still going to be a little down this year. If CU has a decent year, they should have a good (as in, intimidating) home field crowd in this one, but it won't be enough.

3. K-State: The success of this season depends on two things. First, the offensive line being able to protect the QB and open some running lanes. Second, Josh Freeman developing. I want to see the TD:INT ratio improve drastically, but even more I want to see better decision making and ball security. Several of Freeman's fumbles last year were totally preventable, because he held the ball too far away from him when he got rushed.

This should be a really good defensive unit, maybe the best in the North. Rob Jackson and Ian Campbell should be in a lot of QBs nightmares. The secondary has all kinds of returning experience, and Reggie Walker should be the anchor of a solid LB corps. Need to find a way to toughen up against the run though. If that happens, we'll be in every game simply because the other team won't score much.

Predicted finish (4-4):
9/29, at Texas: Loss for KSU. Ouch, what a crappy way to start the conference slate. In Austin, against a team that will be laying for us after last year's big win in the Little Apple. Here's hoping that early season trip to Auburn gets us ready for this game.
10/6, vs. KU: Win for KSU. This won't be an easy game coming off a tough trip to UT, but it's one we better pick up, especially at home. KU's defense will probably make it hard on Freeman again, but not as bad as last year, and our defense will be much better off against the beaks offense, sans Cornish.
10/13, vs. Colorado: Win for KSU. Handy road win last year, and a team that's probably somewhat improved this year, versus a horrible team from last year that has improved some, but not that much. Things starting to look good.
10/20, at Oklahoma State: Loss for KSU. Maybe not the toughest environment, but this team has some serious talent and had us on the ropes in Manhattan last year. We will need some serious defense in this one to hang in it.
10/27, vs. Baylor: Win for KSU. Last season's game in Waco was definitely the low point of the year. However, it occurred right as we were switching from Dylan Meier to Josh Freeman, and it was early in the year before things started to click. I don't give the Bears much chance against a team that is vastly improved from last year's meeting, and should be laying for them.
11/3, at Iowa State: Win for KSU. This could be an upset game, especially considering it comes right before our two biggest games of the year. But I think we have a much better team than ISU at this point, and should be able to manage a win in Ames.
11/10, at Nebraska: Loss for KSU. See comments above. Should be a good game, but I can't predict a win right now.
11/17, vs. Missouri: Loss for KSU. See comments above. Maybe I should pick a win here, but I can't.

4. KU: The beaks join NU as teams with QB controversies heading into the fall. Kerry Meier and Todd Reesing will battle it out, though I suspect Reesing will wind up the starter. However, Mangino may continue to pull his boneheaded QB musical chairs game, and never allow either one to get comfortable. Also, Jon Cornish is gone, meaning KU has lost its top offensive threat. The defense should be pretty solid this year, though I doubt it will be on a level with the unit of two years ago.

Predicted finish (2-6):
10/6, at K-State: Loss for KU. See comments above.
10/13, vs. Baylor: Win for KU. A battle of the two traditional doormats of the conference, with the North team coming out on top for a change.
10/20, at Colorado: Loss for KU. Sure, CU isn't that great. But KU has been downright wretched on the road in conference play, and CU should take them in Boulder.
10/27, at Texas A&M: Loss for KU. Ouch. The Aggies won in Lawrence last year, and I don't see much chance when the beaks step onto Kyle Field.
11/3, vs. Nebraska: Loss for KU. Again, I should pick the upset, but I won't.
11/10, at Oklahoma State: Loss for KU. The Cowboys have too much firepower for the birds, this one could get ugly.
11/17, vs. Iowa State: Win for KU. This could be an interesting game, but I still don't think the Clones are ready to compete with anyone in the conference. I could be proven woefully wrong if Gene Chizik proves to be a good coach.
11/24, vs. Missouri (in KC): Loss for KU. See above.

5. Iowa State: The good news is they have Bret Meyer and Todd Blythe. The bad news is...that's about it. I think Gene Chizik is a good coach who will get the most out of these players, but their most isn't going to be much. Look out for the Clones in a few years if Chizik and recruit to Ames.

Predicted finish (1-7):
9/29, at Nebraska: Loss for ISU. See above.
10/6, at Texas Tech: Loss for ISU. Chizik should know what TTU is up to and have a good idea how to stop them, but whether his players can execute is a whole other matter.
10/13, vs. Texas: Loss for ISU. No further comment necessary.
10/20, vs. Oklahoma: Loss for ISU. No further comment necessary.
10/27, at Missouri: Loss for ISU. See above.
11/3, vs. K-State: Loss for ISU. See above.
11/10, vs. Colorado: Win for ISU. See above.
11/17, at KU: Loss for ISU. See above.

6. Colorado: The Buffs should be much better this year if they actually have a QB who can throw the ball out of his shadow, and it appears Dan Hawkins' son, Cody, might be able to. Hard to know how much improved they'll be, but I'll take them to at least be better than KU and Iowa State.

Predicted finish (1-7):
9/29, vs. Oklahoma: Loss for CU. Bob Stoops could be the Buffs by himself.
10/6, at Baylor: Loss for CU. Last time the Buffs went to the shithole, they lost. This trip won't be much better.
10/13, at K-State: Loss for CU. See above.
10/20, vs. KU: Win for CU. See above.
10/27, at Texas Tech: Loss for CU. CU's woes in the Lone Star State continue (think 70-3).
11/3, vs. Missouri: Loss for CU. See above.
11/10, at Iowa State: Loss for CU. This is the Clones best chance for a win this year. They better get it.
11/23, vs. Nebraska: Loss for CU. See above.

If I feel like it, I'll do a (much shorter) prediction for the South sometime soon. Until then, enjoy the rain.