Big 12 South and Overall Conference Predictions

Before I begin, I'll preface this by admitting I'm not as familiar with the South teams as I am the North. I follow them, but I don't have as much in-depth knowledge of each team as your average football-crazed Texan. I'm sure justin will be along shortly to let me know what's wrong with my predictions, starting with why I didn't pick A&M to win the South.

That said, I'd be derelict in my blogging duties if I didn't tell you what I think of the Big 12 South teams, so here are my predictions.

1. Texas: I think some questions may remain about Colt McCoy's ability to stay healthy, but there's no question about his ability when he is healthy. The kid is flat out good, and we saw in the last two games last year his team wasn't the same without him. Oh, the offense they'll have, with McCoy, Jamaal Charles and Limas Sweed back in the picture. They definitely lost some big hosses up front, though, so we'll see how the new offensive line comes together.

The defense is the real question mark for me with this team. They lost their best players in Michael Griffin and Aaron Ross, not to mention DE Tim Crowder. Now we hear Robert Joseph is transferring after his legal issues, so we'll see if a team that was awful against the pass last year can get better using addition by subtraction. Throw in the fact that defensive coordinator Gene Chizik is now freezing his balls off in Ames, Iowa, and I may be nuts for picking this team to represent the South in San Antonio. That's why these are spring/summer predictions, I guess.

Predicted finish: 6-2
9/29, K-State: Win for UT. See my comments from the North predictions. Suffice it to say, K-State is still a fairly young team, with young coaches, trying to find its way. I'm hardly admitting the win last year in Manhattan was a fluke, but Austin ain't Manhattan.
10/6, vs. OU (in Dallas): Win for UT. The biggest game every year in the South comes early, which may be good for UT, with OU breaking in a new QB. Am I really predicting Mack Brown to make it three in a row against Bawb Stewps? I guess I am.
10/13, at Iowa State: Win for UT. Just because Chizik will know everything UT is doing on defense doesn't mean his players will be able to execute his game plan. Plus, it's early enough in the year that UT's players won't die of exposure on the Iowa plains.
10/20, at Baylor: Win for UT. As long as UT's players don't fall asleep during the pregame prayer, I have a feeling they'll be able to handle Baylor this year.
10/27, Nebraska: Win for UT. The 'Horns managed to pull one off in Lincoln, in the snow, last year, which was pretty impressive. Nebraska will be a little better than last year, but I don't see UT on the downward slide, and having the game in Austin will help with the crowd and the weather.
11/3, at Oklahoma State: Loss for UT. Ok, they're not invincible. At this point, the Horns will probably be the subject of some national title talk, but I see that ending in Stillwater.
11/10, Texas Tech: Win for UT. I'm tempted to pick Tech here, but the game's in Austin and Tech has some questions up front on defense. On the other hand, if UT's passing defense doesn't improve, I could see "veteran" (at Tech, anything more than one year for a QB qualifies as a grizzled vet) QB Graham Harrell torching UT for a victory.
11/23, at Texas A&M: Loss for UT. Dare I say it? Can Fran saws varsity's horns off two years in a row? If McCoy is healthy and UT is out for revenge, the Backyard Brawl could go to UT, but at this point I'm sticking with the Ags.

2. Oklahoma: Everyone's saying OU doesn't have a quarterback. I disagree. I don't think they have a proven quarterback. We'll see if Joey Halzle of Sam Bradford have what it takes to succeed in the Big 12. They get four non-con games and a trip to Boulder (where right now the fans are scarier than the team) to sort things out. It helps to have eight offensive starters back.

I don't have much opinion on OU's defense, other than noting they have seven starters back. Of course, the losses include CJ Ah You, Larry Birdine and Rufus Alexander. With the coaches they have, I don't expect much dropoff.

Predicted finish, 6-2:
9/29, at Colorado: Win for OU. See comments from other post and above. CU will be marginally better, but not to any great extent.
10/6, vs. UT (in Dallas): Loss for OU. See comments above.
10/13, vs. Missouri: Win for OU. Mizzou should be pretty good, even possibly the North champions, but I don't see them beating OU, even in Columbia. I'd like to think I'm wrong though...but I don't.
10/20, at Iowa State: Win for OU. See comments from other post. I think ISU is in for a struggle this year.
11/3, Texas A&M: Win for OU. The Aggies couldn't stop OU's ground attack in College Station last year, even with me helping out as the 12th Man. On top of that, if it comes down to Fran v. Stewps, it's not even a contest. Throw in the fact that it's in Gaylord Stadium (or whatever it's called) and the Sooners top the Aggies.
11/10, Baylor: Win for OU. Poor Bears.
11/17, at Texas Tech: Loss for OU. Tech has a proven starter at QB for the first time since 1897, and they had OU on the ropes in Norman last year before faltering. If nothing else, a Tech fan will throw a tortilla on the field, causing an OU player to slip on his way to a possible touchdown run.
11/24, Oklahoma State: Win for OU. Bedlam returns to Norman this year, and I think the Sooners have just enough for Mike Gundy's Cowboys this year. Better get that defense ready, though, because I doubt OU wants to get into a shootout with the gunslingers from Stillwater.

3. Oklahoma State: I think the Pokes break into the top half of the South this year behind Bobby Reid, Adarius Bowman and Dantrell Savage. This could be one sick offense. I really like watching this team, because it reminds me of the K-State offense under Snyder with the likes of Ell Roberson and Michael Bishop at quarterback and runners like Darren Sproles terrorizing Big 12 defenses.

The key to OSU being more successful this year obviously lies with the defense. The Pokes return seven starters, but only ranked ninth in the league in total defense. If the defensive line replacements (Marque Fountain and Nate Peterson) are as good as advertised, they should be at least as good as last year.

Predicted finish, 5-3:
9/22, vs. Texas Tech: Win for OSU. In a game where the over will probably be a good bet, I'm taking the Pokes at home. Tech's fairly experienced secondary may make life rough on Reid throwing, but that's hardly his only talent.
10/6, at Texas A&M: Loss for OSU. The Cowboys may have a hard time running their complicated offense and dealing with the Kyle Field noise, and A&M's experienced offense should be able to put up just enough points to sneak out a win.
10/13, at Nebraska: Loss for OSU. Last year the Pokes ran the Huskers out of Stillwater with an embarassing loss, and put Bill Callahan in hot water with Husker fans (at least for a week). However, it's another game where OSU will have to deal with a fairly loud crowd, not to mention a team looking for some revenge. Also, if I'm not mistaken, OSU hasn't won in Lincoln since 1960. Ouch.
10/20, vs. K-State: Win for OSU. One of those games where the venue switches, and the result switches. The Wildcat defense should be able to slow the Pokes down...for a while. We'll see if the Wildcat offense can give them any help.
11/3, vs. Texas: Win for OSU. Biggest win of the year for OSU. This could be a real shootout, but this time the Pokes have the firepower to take it, especially if UT's defense doesn't improve against the pass without Griffin and Ross.
11/10, vs. KU: Win for OSU. Umm, Adarius Bowman might have to leave this game from exhaustion if he plays like he did last year in Lawrence. Could he have 400 yards receiving?
11/17, at Baylor: Win for OSU. Okie State only put up 66 points last year on Baylor. They may not manage 60 in Waco, but the Bears will probably have a tough time holding them under 50.
11/24, at Oklahoma: Loss for OSU. Bitter pill to swallow at the end of the season, but at least they'll have a bowl game to look forward to. Also, I wouldn't count the Cowboys out of this one. They've beaten OU recently in Norman, and have the firepower to make life difficult on the Sooners.

4. Texas Tech: It says something about the South's depth that I'm getting to the four and five spots and thinking I must have made a horrible mistake to pick these teams this low. Then I look at the teams above them and can't see any way to move them up.

This should be an interesting year in Lubbock. For the first time in recorded history, Mike Leach has a quarterback with a year's starting experience (I mistakenly indicated they didn't in my North prediction post, sorry). On the other hand, TTU lost Joel Filani, Jarrett Hicks, and almost its entire offensive line. Leach, more than any other coach, has proven his system can win with almost any players plugged into spots. This will be a good test of that idea.

On defense, it's more of the same. The secondary has a lot of experience, but the defensive line lost all its starters and has only seven players on scholarship (cross those fingers in Lubbock against injuries...or maybe I should say cross those teeth).

I used to hate Tech, and in some ways I still do, but I discovered a newfound appreciation for Leach this winter, courtesy NFL Films and the local Lubbock news. Truly a mad scientist. Enjoy.





Predicted finish, 5-3:
9/22, at Oklahoma State. Loss for TTU, see comments above.
10/6, Iowa State. Win for TTU. Unless Chizik can take the field himself (and has some serious talent at every position), the Clones are gonna get buried.
10/13, vs. Texas A&M: Win for TTU. The Raiders went into Kyle Field and snuck out a win last year, we'll see if aTm can return the favor this year. I doubt it, but the Aggies will assuredly come to play.
10/20, at Missouri: Loss for TTU. Could be a real shootout, but I predict a drunken and crazed Mizzou student will charge the field and cause an accidental fumble by Tech, which will be the difference in the game.
10/27, vs. Colorado: Win for TTU. What the hell happened to Tech in Boulder last year? Whatever it was, I'm guessing it won't happen again, in spades.
11/3, at Baylor: Win for TTU. Now if it was a math competition, I might have a different answer, but I'm guessing they won't change the rules of football to incorporate academic skills anytime soon.
11/10, at Texas: Loss for TTU. See comments above.
11/17, vs. OU: Win for TTU. See comments above.

5. Texas A&M: Wow. Sorry Ags. I guess I'm probably predicting the final downfall of Dennis Franchione with a fifth-place division finish, but then again that probably doesn't make all of you sad. This year the Aggies will probably have their moments (as you'll see below), but won't be able to put it together consistently to make a run at the conference title game.

How am I predicting a team with 16 returning starters to finish next-to-last in the South? Well, first remember I'm the guy who picked Mizzou to win the North, that might explain something right there. The other explanations are that I don't think Stephen McGee can throw the ball out of a wet paper bag and Fran will probably kick a lot of PATs when he should be going to two-point conversions. Four key losses (Bullitt, Thornton, Warren and Jack) on defense don't help matters either.

Predicted finish, 4-4:
9/29, vs. Baylor. Win for A&M. The Bears have kind of been a thorn in the Ags' side lately, but it ain't happenin' in College Station.
10/6, vs. Oklahoma State. Win for A&M. I pick an A&M win despite the feeling this could be a lot like the early-season game against Tech last year, where A&M just couldn't quite get it done. But I think the Aggies do just enough to pull it out and, unfortunately, just enough to give their fans some serious hope before...
10/13, at Texas Tech: Loss for A&M. Tech won at Kyle last season, and I don't think they got much worse. Winning in Lubbock would be a big boost for aTm, but I don't see it happening.
10/20, at Nebraska: Loss for A&M. The noose may be starting to get tight around Fran's neck. Yeah, A&M had Nebraska all but beat last year, but this is this year and this isn't Kyle Field.
10/27, vs. KU: Win for A&M. Don't fuck this one up, Ags. And if you do, fire Fran on the spot.
11/3, at Oklahoma: Loss for A&M. Inconsistency strikes again. Win one, lose one, win two, lose two, whatever. I don't see a win in Norman this year.
11/10, at Missouri: Loss for A&M. This game will likely be decided by which team's coach does a better job of staying out of his own way. Mizzou has too much firepower to lost to A&M, especially in Columbia.
11/23, at Texas: Win for A&M. The ultimate irony may be that losing to A&M means every UT fan gets their wish if Bill Byrne decides to keep Fran on as coach because he's beat UT twice in a row.

6. Baylor: The bad news for the Bears is they lost their best player, punter Daniel Sepulveda. The even worse news is they also lost starting QB Shawn Bell. It's rare for the Bears to have two good players at one time, so losing those two hurts bad. Add that to the fact that this university is located in Waco, Texas, and you all have my deepest sympathy. Good luck this year, you crazy Branch-Davidians..err...Baptists.

Predicted finish, 1-7:
9/29, at Texas A&M: Loss for BU. Get ready to hear this phrase a lot.
10/6, vs. Colorado: Win for BU. An answer to the pregame prayer...the Buffs come to town, and BU makes it two in a row in the shithole over CU.
10/13, at KU: Loss for BU.
10/20, vs. Texas: Loss for BU.
10/27, at K-State: Loss for BU. If we blow this one, I will write an homage to Waco as the center of the universe on this site.
11/3, vs. Texas Tech: Loss for BU.
11/10, at Oklahoma: Loss for BU.
11/17, Oklahoma State: Loss for BU.

So all of that leaves us with a Big 12 Championship game matchup of Texas vs. Missouri. In San Antonio which, for you non-Texas aficionados, is only about 80 miles down the road from Austin. I'm predicting there will be a maximum of 800 Missouri fan in attendance. In spite of the overwhelming odds, Mizzou will come out strong, looking for all the world like they may pull the upset of the mighty Longhorns. Alas, Pinkel and Co. will remember who they are, and the result of their last trip to Texas (last year's Sun Bowl) and will promptly choke away a late lead in true MU Tiger fashion. But hey, at least they made it this far.

The next three months can't go fast enough.

Coming this week: Thoughts on possible Sprint Center tenants, and pictures from the K from the Royals big 17-5 win over Philadelphia on Sunday. Also, if I'm lucky, maybe some pics from the I-70 Series, which starts tomorrow.