2007 Season Preview: Auburn

Boredom makes for long, crappy afternoons, but it probably does wonders for my blogging. As such, I decided to dig into our schedule for the upcoming year and start previewing opponents, starting with the season opener at Auburn.

Game One:


vs.




2006 Record: 11-2 (6-2)
Returning Starters: Five offensive, seven defensive

Game Information
Saturday, September 1st
Auburn, Ala., Jordan-Hare Stadium
7:45 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time/6:45 p.m. Central Daylight Time (ESPN)



When Auburn has the ball...
Senior quarterback Brandon Cox (163-271, 2198 yards, 14 TD/9 INT)will be taking the snaps from center. I watched him play (on TV) last year in the LSU and Nebraska (Cotton Bowl) games, so I saw the uninjured version against LSU and the injured version against Nebraska. He's a solid, if not spectacular QB who avoids making mistakes. In fact, from what I could tell, Auburn is the kind of team that will make sure it doesn't make mistakes and will wait until the other team does. The Tigers beat LSU, 7-3, in a game in which one turnover (a Cox INT) was committed.

Cox is one of the few returning starters of note for the Tiger offense. Auburn loses four starters on the offensive line, its top receiver (Courtney Taylor) and its top running back (Kenny Irons).

Returning running back Brad Lester (104 carries, 510 yards, 9 TDs) will carry the load this year for the Tigers. Cox's primary throwing target will probably Rodgerigus Smith (26 catches, 452 yards, 4 TDs). However, we'll see if he has any time to throw. The offensive line allowed 35 sacks last season (second-worst in the SEC) and lost four of five starters.

When K-State has the ball...

This Auburn defense is nasty. It finished fourth in the SEC in total defense last season, and I shouldn't have to tell you how good the SEC was.

Up front, four major contributors return for the Tigers (Quentin Groves and Sen'Derrick Marks at DE, Josh Thompson at nose guard, and Pat Sims at DT). That's 13.5 sacks and 20.5 tackles for loss returning among that group. Not to mention, the group gave up only 3.7 yards per rush and eight rushing touchdowns last year.

At linebacker, Auburn has potential far beyond what they have in returning production. The top three returnees, stats-wise, are Merrill Johnson, Steve Gandy and Patrick Trahan (combined 61 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks). However, they may get Tray Blackmon back from academic problems, although he didn't play this spring. Blackmon is a stud who would make a big difference for AU.

In the secondary, Auburn loses its best player, CB David Irons, but shouldn't lose a lot of overall production. Erick Brock, Airon Savage, Patrick Lee and Jonathan Wilhite (147 tackles, 4 INT, 19 passes broken up) return for the Tigers.

Special Teams:
Auburn lost its placekicker, punter and kickoff specialist, which could make things interesting if the game comes down to a kick. Freshman (RS) Ross Gornall will likely be the placekicker, and freshman (RS) Ryan Shoemaker will take over the punting duties from Kody Bliss (who was among the best in the nation last season).

The Tigers were first in the SEC last year in kickoff returns, and Tristan Davis and Brad Lester return for more this year. Strangely, Auburn was 11th in the SEC in punt return average. Robert Dunn was the primary punt returner last year, and he returns for this season.

Matchups

K-State offense vs. Auburn defense
Auburn is going to make things miserable for offensive coordinator James Franklin and the K-State offense. While I'm cautiously optimistic our offensive line will be better, it will take them a while to improve. This is not the defensive line to start that group against, and you can bet the crowd noise at Jordan-Hare will make signal-calling difficult. Establishing the run will be crucial to make sure Josh Freeman doesn't get killed, and I'm not sure we can establish much of a running game. James Johnson and Leon Patton will have to have the game of their lives.

K-State defense vs. Auburn offense
Auburn's serious questions on the offensive line may allow Ian Campbell, Rob Jackson and company to make life difficult for Brandon Cox. However, Auburn is a patient team who will probably try to establish the run, and stopping the run is the major question mark of the K-State defense. Auburn was third in the SEC in time of possession last year (30:08 per game), and if the K-State offense can't keep the defense off the field, they'll probably be content to grind it out and wear down the Cats defense.

Three reasons K-State could win:

1. Exploit Auburn's offensive line: This is a unit that wasn't particularly outstanding last year, and lost four starters. If K-State's front seven bottle up the Auburn rushing game, they will force Cox to beat them.

2. Make turnovers happen: Cox threw nine interceptions last year. K-State's secondary is athletic and plays together well, and a healthy Marcus Watts could turn the ball over a couple times.

3. Auburn struggles in season-openers: The Tigers are 4-3 in season openers under Tommy Tuberville, including a shutout loss at home to USC in 2003. Other losses have come to USC in Los Angeles (2002) and at home to Georgia Tech (2005). Wins have come over Appalachian State (1999), Wyoming (2000), Ball State (2001), Louisiana-Monroe (2004) and Washington State (2006), all in Auburn.

Three reasons Auburn could win...

1. Dominating defense: Auburn returns solid contributors at each defensive unit. We saw last year how much K-State struggled in games in which it could not establish any running game, and we saw what happened against athletic defenses that didn't give Freeman time to throw. If the Cats put up a lot of three-and-outs, it will be a long night in the South.

2. Senior quarterback: Cox is 19-5 as a starter the last two years, and has played in his share of big games, including two bowl games. He's patient and, depite last year's nine INTs, generally doesn't force the ball. If he is truly healthy, he will be much better than he looked in the Cotton Bowl.

3. Talent: It was really difficult to put together the previews of Auburn's units, because they have so many new players who could challenge for starting time. And with all those bodies, the Tigers' coaches can keep running fresh bodies out there on both sides of the ball. Big-time programs in the South have a major recruiting advantage, because there are an unbelievable amount of great recruits in this region.

Prediction: I look for a very low-scoring affair. Auburn's offensive line may have trouble coming together and establishing a running game and protecting Cox, which should give the K-State defense a chance to bottle up the Auburn attack. Conversely, the Auburn defense won't give up much either. Auburn has proven it is a patient team that will allow its opponent to beat itself if necessary. The Auburn offense will eventually wear down the Cats' defense to pull away for a 21-10 win.